I posted a presidential election prediction in 2020 which I thought was a good analysis, but I ended up being…you guessed it…completely wrong. I predicted that Trump won points on the economy, foreign policy with the Abraham Accords, and violent crime. I also said that I think Biden had a more coherent health care plan. What I didn’t predict was how much, or still at the time, the coronavirus would have an impact on the election, and I do think that this cost Trump the White House in 2020. Most of the #TeamDeSantis people would say “well duh, of course it cost him. He didn’t fire Fauci, he didn’t stop the vaccines, he didn’t end lockdowns.” That is not what I’m saying in how covid lost him the election. Although Anthony Fauci’s support was dwindling, you know and I know that in mid-2020 if Trump fired Fauci he would be behind close to 15-20 points in the polls. If he would have stopped Project Warp Speed, the media would eviscerate him more than they did.
It’s easy to look at something with a 2024 mindset and blame the guy. But what you don’t understand is that it was the media and their narrative around covid that cost Trump the election. The constant fear mongering which was amplified by social media companies, this influenced rule changes in elections that were promoted by pro-Democrat groups. I mean it was all laid out in the Time Magazine article The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved Democracy. I promise, I will do a deep dive of this article as another blog post. So yes, covid did cause Trump the election just not in the way you think. Also, for those who think I’m some covid apologist, just look at my blog posts dating back to March 2020. I was fighting to keep my face uncovered while most of you lapsed covidians were screeching “two-weeks to slow the spread.”
Policy and Social Issues
Now, back to the 2024 prediction. As before, I will outline the top issues heading into this election. We are a long way from 2020, and this election cycle proves this even more by how absolutely bananas it has been. We’ve had largely uncontested primaries, ginned up charges of a former president, cognitive decline from the sitting president which was shown on national T.V. during a debate — this led to the party of the sitting president to commit a soft coup to get him out and replace him with the vice-president who earned ZERO primary votes, a media who covered up the cognitive decline and white washed the negativity of the vice president only to prop her up as a savior to the people. Oh, and I almost forgot, there have been TWO assassination attempts of the challenger within a 60 day period. I almost didn’t even want to do another one of these because of how crazy and unpredictable this cycle has been, but alas, I’m a glutton for punishment I guess.
According to the Pew Research Center, voters outlined the top issues based on party and who is best fit to handle these issues, Pew then aggregated those percentages to see where both parties reflect a common ground in all this divisive mess.
Not surprisingly, the economy is the top issue with 81% of respondents feeling this issue is very important to their vote. This is followed by Health Care (65%), SCOTUS appointments (63%), Foreign Policy (62%), Violent Crime (61%), and Immigration (61%). Once again the economy tops the biggest issue as it did in 2020, as its importance grows 2% points since 2020. I do feel health care and supreme court appointments have to do with abortion, even though abortion itself is only 51%. Democrats have been fighting to get back the provisions of Roe v. Wade in the courts after it was overturned in 2022. However, foreign policy, violent crime, and immigration all enter the top issues for 2024. They were considered top issues in 2020, but not nearly at the percentages they are now.
| Topic | 2020 | 2024 | Change |
| Violent Crime | 59% | 62% | +3% |
| Foreign Policy | 57% | 61% | +4% |
| Immigration | 52% | 61% | +9% |
With a 9 point swing since 2020, Immigration has become one of the leading issues of this 2024 cycle. Of course, one can look at the bevy of stories related to illegal immigration. With the issues outlined, let’s talk about where each candidate stands on the issues and if one has the edge over another.
Economy: As is in 2020, Donald Trump takes the lead on the economy, and if he does win, this will be the reason why. What helps Trump with the economy that didn’t help him in 2020 was not knowing how bad Joe Biden would be on the economy. Joe had the “build back better” plan (which I mentioned in 2020), and it was an unmitigated disaster involving the Inflation Reduction Act — which increased inflation, and the Infrastructure Act which was an abomination. I should also add, Kamala Harris as vice-president is now candidate against Trump. She is running as an incumbent, don’ get it twisted. Anything I say with Biden, she is 100% attached to the hip on. Trump’s plan is similar to 2020, with the backdrop of Biden/Harris failures, this is looking more enticing. Trump wins outright on the economy.
Health Care: Kamala Harris polls well here and Trump’s second debate performance saying he has the idea, or conception of a plan did not do him any favors. In actuality, both have incoherent plans for the economy, but more Democrat voters make health care a ballot box issue, so this one goes to Kamala.
Supreme Court: Both Democrats and Republicans in the house and senate are really looking at the supreme court and how the president makes all the difference here. Republicans plan is looking to keep a conservative majority, especially with older members like Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito. I do think one of these two will be replaced in the next 4 years. Democrats on the other hand want to remove this conservative majority and get more liberal justices in there, by any means necessary. Either with my prediction of substituting a conservative retiree with a liberal, potentially Sotomayor might retire and keep the 6-3 majority as it stands, or even more expand the supreme court to 12 justices and appointing 3 new liberal justices to make it 6-6. Although this is not talked about as much, this will be a big issue. Tie, both sides have their fights here.
Foreign Policy: The topic of foreign policy in this election comes down to observing the incumbency. Did the Biden-Harris White House do enough under their four years on foreign policy and are we better off than we were four years ago? One can argue that the war in Ukraine and the unrest in Middle East (Israel and Palestine, Lebanon, and Iran) gives Trump an edge. It is true, we did not have the global unrest to the level that we have now. With that said Harris is trying to make the case that she has separated herself from Biden policies, but that was quickly quashed after Biden stated here, and on many occasions, that he and Harris are completely aligned. I still think the Afghanistan withdrawal will have the biggest impact here, uniformly condemned on both sides; therefore, Trump wins here.
Violent Crime: This is clearly a loss for the Democrats in this election, not only the stories that have come out with crime involving the illegal immigrants (We’ll get to that), but merely the fact that Democrats have been downplaying violent crime all the way up to the Trump/Harris debate when ABC’s David Muir “fact checked” Trump on rising crime suggesting that is not true. Only then, the FBI released updated data showing that crime rates were quite high at the start of the Biden-Harris Administration and continue to be high. There is so much meat on the bone for the Republicans with this one, and the Democrats are working hard to deflect and ignore the situation. However, this is a massive issue for people who live outside of the D.C. Beltway. From the liberal D.A.’s like George Gascon (Los Angeles, who is down 30% points in his re-election bid), Kim Fox (Chicago), and Larry Krasner (Philadelphia); to the support of defunding the police (Note: The Fraternal Order of Police, the largest police union in the US endorse Trump); and the data now showing the massive rise in violent crime. Donald Trump takes a massive advantage here.
Immigration: Both sides have made their case on immigration. Although Trump leads in every poll on who is best to handle immigration. The Harris playbook is using the “Border Bill” rhetoric, showing how it was Trump who influenced Republicans in congress to vote No on a bill that would help fund the border. Although this bill was presented, and there was bipartisanship in support, it was a very weak border bill. Florida Republican congressman Byron Donalds explains the useless pork that was in the so-called bipartisan border bill.
The item that stands out to me is the $60 Billion to Ukraine. All this does is confirm to me that this was a garbage omnibus bill that spent unnecessary money which would’ve done largely nothing to stop the border crisis, and it most certainly is a crisis, from the violent crime, to drugs, cartel operations, and economy struggles. The Biden-Harris Administration figure has at least 10M illegal crossings in one fiscal year (makes the Trump/Vance 20M figure throughout the entire administration seem plausible). I think it’s clear, this issue is by far one of Trump’s strongest despite his “Springfield Cats and Dogs” flub.
Electoral Prediction
How are presidential elections won? They are won on the issues, sure, but they are also one on the feelings of the nation as well. In terms of the 6 issues we discussed, I will give Harris the SCOTUS topic making it 4-2 in Trump’s favor. When the media says that Trump needs to stick to the issues, is exactly that, it’s true he wins on the issues. But presidential elections in the final days comes down to feelings, and usually the one who is in the spotlight in the final days is not really in a good position.
And believe it or not, the one in the spotlight right now is Kamala Harris.
From disastrous interviews, to policies not resonating, Harris seems to be in the spotlight right now, which is not a good position. Trump has remained “uncharacteristically low key” in these final days, and this might benefit him. I have droned on long enough, let’s get to the point, here are my predictions for the 2024 election for President, Senate, and House.
President: Trump 296, Harris 242
Senate: Republicans 53, Democrats 47 (Red/pink cross-fills are senate flips, +4 net change)
House: Democrats 222, Republicans 213 (+10 seat flip for Democrats)
So there it is, I predict a Trump (Republican) win for the presidency, the GOP will take back the Senate, and the Democrats will take back the house. Some things to consider here is that whoever wins the presidency will have a contentious congress to deal with, have it be Harris with a Republican Senate or Trump with a Democratic house and Speaker Jeffries. My house prediction is perhaps the weakest since I really don’t know what will happen in all 435 districts, this is just based on scarce polling data, and the “incumbent advantage.” Also, Senator Deb Fischer in Nebraska is in a tight race with Independent Dan Osborn. This could throw a wrench in my prediction because it is not uncommon for Independents to be in the senate (Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema, Bernie Sanders, and Angus King). With that said the latter Independent senators caucused with one of the two parties (Manchin, Sinema, Sanders, and King all caucus with the Democratic Party). Looking at Osborn’s policies, he leans libertarian/economic populist, aligning closely with more MAGA policies, so I predict he will caucus with Republicans, meaning the prediction will remain 53-R, 47-D; or, if you want to get technical 52-R, 45-D, 2-I(d), 1-I(r).
Key Swing States
Pennsylvania
As per last election, it will all come down to Pennsylvania, sort of. As per my prediction, Trump does not need Pennsylvania to win the election, especially if he takes Michigan and all the southern states. Since I think this is going to be an extremely close contest; so close, that I will make a secondary prediction, just to heighten the suspense. I believe that Trump will win Pennsylvania after the initial vote by less than 10,000 votes, leading to a recount (a la 2000 with Florida). Trump will ultimately survive the recount, but this will make January 6, 2025 quite interesting for certification…especially with the Democrats (maybe this time we will see LGBTQ-Anon Shaman).
Michigan
Trump has been campaigning hard in Michigan, I do think that this is going to be a good state for the Republicans . Mike Rogers will be the new Senator, and the automotive workers will go and vote for Donald Trump. Interestingly enough the Arab American vote will not go for Trump — nor will it go for Harris either — and that’s how she loses this state. A poll conducted by the Council on American-Islamic Relations showed Jill Stein in first place with 40%, Donald Trump in second place with 18%, and Kamala Harris in third with 12%. Imagine that a minority population with a Democratic candidate in THIRD amongst their voters. This is because how the Biden-Harris Administration handled the war in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas. It’s not that Trump will ‘win’ Michigan, but Harris will ‘lose’ Michigan.
Wisconsin
I’m kind of going against history here a little bit, given the classic phrase “so goes [insert Midwest blue wall state], so goes the rest of them.” It is rare to say that the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will differ in their outcomes, as these three state generally vote the same in every election (as in either Democrats win all three like in 2020, or Republicans win all three like in 2016). I think Wisconsin is going to be one of those close states, probably a margin of victory around 20,000 votes for Harris.
Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
These states will also be close contests. Trump will most likely come out on top given historical precedence and current poll trends. However, just by the seven states I mentioned, this decision could easily go in the other direction. What gives me confidence in this prediction that three of these states will go to Trump is the early voting numbers favoring Republicans in this election. They are quite down for Democrats this cycle than in 2020. Democrats still lead but the margins are not the same. Not to mention this is the first time in many years that the country identifies more as Republican (around +1 for Republicans compared to +3 for Democrats in 2020). Just the data alone will deliver at least 3 of the 4 states for Trump. I still think Harris will squeak by in Nevada.
X-Factor State(s)*
Virginia
This will be an important bellwether state in this election, as it is one of the earliest to call their election and we should get results fairly soon on election night. Although, I think the Democrats will win Virginia it will be close, perhaps around 1 point or less. This will signal early trouble for the Democrats as Virginia used to be a +10 for Democrats. This will be an early sign that will start the panic for Democrats, in my opinion.
Texas
This will be a positive trend for the Democrats. I think Trump will ultimately win the state but it will be close, perhaps less than 5 points. I also think Ted Cruz and Colin Allred will have a very close election for the senate. This could be a bellwether for the Democrats, if they perform well in Texas this could be a very good night for them. This is a shift that Democrats have been observing for quite some time given the changing demographics of the state. Not to mention the prize of 40 electoral college votes (second most in the nation).
Oregon
This is a surprising one, especially no one would think that Oregon would be anywhere close to an X-Factor state. Once a Democrat…oh I don’t know…+15/+20 state has shrunk in recent years. Although results may determine the overall outcome well before the final tallies in Oregon, I predict Trump will shrink the state margin to a +4 or +5 Democrat. This spells massive trouble for the Democrats and a significant bellwether for how this election will turn out.
Positioning for 2028
What these X-Factor states will determine is key positioning for the 2028 election. I could very easily see Virginia going red, Texas going blue, and Oregon being a true purple state in 2028. Regardless of which party wins on election night, if these X-Factor predictions stand, celebrate the win (or reflect on the loss) and get to work in these states to avoid the changes, 2028 will be here before you know it.
Here we go again: Reason for Trump Victory
Covid lost Trump the election in 2020, and I think we can all agree the 2020 election was a weird time (refer to my introduction of this prediction). I think this will be a normal election based on the policies, and Trump wins on the policies. From the economy, immigration, foreign policy, and public safety — Trump carries all these positions. The Harris campaign is too single issued, or I should say double issued: Abortion and hating Trump. These are not winning issues — I mean the polls are close so maybe they are winning issues I just don’t see it. However, Trump carried Biden in all the key issues in 2020 and lost, so who knows what could happen.
I tend to think voters fall into a political science theory called the Funnel of Causality, alternatively called the Michigan Model, which explains voter influence and behavior through a series of factors both long term and short term. Long term factors include party identification, and party socialization; mid-term factors include initial policies and candidate evaluations; short-term (close to the election) relies on personal characteristics and current events such as economic climate and foreign policy. I describe it as: you can bluster about one candidate or another on social media, but when you’re alone in that voting booth, you are thinking about two things:
- Your immediate situation in the socio-economic climate.
- Your family’s immediate situation in the socio-economic climate.
Trump wins with the immediacy of the socio-economic climate, and this will be a ‘narrow funnel policy election.’
Reason for Harris Loss
I think there were many stumbles in this campaign, but the biggest one was changing horses mid-stream after the late-June debate between Biden and Trump. Yes, do you remember? The initial ticket was supposed to be the incumbent President Joe Biden against the challenger Donald Trump. However, after a poor debate by Biden (given his cognitive decline) the Democrats were in a panic to find a new candidate. Although Harris had a fantastic honeymoon period, that was just Democrats being happy that they at least had a fighting chance in this election, instead of a cadaver. Once the shine wore off of the VP, the American people came to their senses. Remember, before she was named as the candidate, she was considered one of the worst VPs in the nations history, an approval rating close to Dick Cheney (the worst VP, irony how he supports her, and she loves his support). Just look at the data from fivethirtyeight/ABC, by the end of the first Trump/Biden debate she held a +10 disapproval rating, on average through her role as VP a +15 disapproval rating.
Granted, Trump never held a high approval rating either, but he is outperforming himself in polls from 2016 when he won, and in 2020 when it was close. Democrats were worried about the polls in June, which is strange because Biden, with help of the media, would’ve closed the gap by this time anyways, and it probably would’ve been a closer outcome. Yes, I think Biden, surprisingly, would’ve performed better but still lost to Trump given the policies. Harris bet on vibes to win this election, I don’t think that is going to work.
Final Analysis
If I am wrong again, I’m just going to have to accept the fact that my analysis is really based on my views of how I think I see the country and how it works best, and that just does not jive with the majority of the American electorate. It’s just a different country than what I thought it was. If the country wants to vote on vibes or social issues rather than policy, that is just the electorate and I have to respect that and give President Elect Kamala Harris a chance. As always, they get 100 days! Biden failed spectacularly at his 100 days, but I did give him a chance as well.
I always end with the Reagan quote of “Are you better off now than you were four years ago.” I did that back in 2020, and even though 6 in 10 felt they were better off under Trump, he still lost the election. But now, close to 7 in 10 feel they WERE better off under Donald Trump, that might be too much to overstate. Not to mention, the data showing the direction of the country (65% feel the country is going in the wrong direction). Harry Enten from CNN did an interesting analysis; in one poll, under the Biden-Harris Administration, only 28% of Americans say they are on the right track. History suggests that an incumbent party with an average of only 25% on the right track lose the election.
- Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale (1980): 16%
- George H.W. Bush/Dan Quayle (1992): 26%
- Donald Trump/Mike Pence (2020): 21% *covid made it weird.
- Joe Biden/Kamala Harris (2024): 28%
Personally, I think this is the stat that matters the most. Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago? Again, I could be very wrong this time, just like how I was in 2020, and as I stated I’m willing to accept the United States is not the country I thought it was. I guess we will have to wait and see what happens November 5th, or beyond.
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