After my American election predictions from last year had the correct score, wrong candidate, I decided to redeem myself through predicting the Canadian election for 2021 — hopefully with less failure. What an election to pick, considering I usually rely on polls for projections, and polls this year may be obsolete. The surge in PPC candidates cannot be understated, and although they are polling low, I feel they may be undercounted come election day. I also think, Erin O’Toole’s fence sitting has given way for the Liberals to make a comeback from earlier polls and reclaim or take new seats.
The PPC is giving me the most trouble with my prediction, considering a 10%+ poll number in a riding can be considered a toss up with other parties in this situation, so I took that into consideration with this prediction. Here is as follows:
My prediction is that the Conservative government will form a minority with a 20+ vote swing. Liberals will be the official opposition -20, with the NDP gaining 9 new seats sharing third party status with the Bloc Quebecois. I am going out on a limb with this prediction, but I do feel with the current momentum, the PPC party will pick up four seats within the House of Commons — most confident in the Beauce riding with Maxime Bernier. Although I may have my own political biases, this seems to be the most accurate according to polling on this date after the debates and into the home stretch. Time will tell what will happen, but most importantly, get out and vote on the 20th!
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