Presidential Election Prediction and Analysis

I have always been a fan of the political process and the political theatre that surround us every four years in the United States. In the tradition of enhancing learning, I have learned in 2020 that this presidential election is one of the most perverse and outlandish storylines from candidates, media, and voters in quite sometime. I think what is most interesting, I am seeing this as a Canadian – an outsider – but a committed one to the process. For that, I feel that having no real dog in the race (aside from foreign policy implications with Canada), I can see this through objective means and use the data and analytical information to produce a well founded prediction.

To start, for full transparency, I feel it is important to provide any political bias I may have. By doing this, I engaged in a survey on a site called The Political Compass to find where I stand on the political spectrum and in relation to other politicians in history. I use this because I feel it is the most accurate given my inherent feelings on the political questions. The images below show my location on the political spectrum – and where my location, along with other politicians, are situated to provide clarity. Compared to the political actors within the storyline of the 2020 election, the closest person aligning my political compass is Tulsi Gabbard.

With that, I think it is important to organize this prediction and analysis by understanding the key policy issues and social issues related to the election. From there, I will display an electoral map prediction, key swing states, x-factor state, reason for candidates’ victory, reason for candidate loss, and final analysis.

Policy and Social Issues

According to Pew Research, here are the top policy issues from August 13^th heading into the election:

The Pew study is aligned with the top three issues reflecting policy and the next three reflecting society. The economy, health care, and supreme court are the key policy issues, where the coronavirus, violent crime, and foreign policy happens to be the top current social issues relating to the election. In addition, one could add race and ethnic inequality, we will go over this briefly, but is more closely tied to violent crime.

• Economy: Donald Trump takes the lead on the economy especially with his tariffs on trade, bringing jobs back to America, and the Trump tax cuts that brought more money back to American families. Joe Biden has leaned towards a large infrastructure plan to “build back better”. Although Trump remains coy on his response towards infrastructure, it is Bidens tax plan that has made waves with a top income tax rate for high earners, which sounds good on paper. However, smart economists would easily see this is not for the billionaires that can move their money off-shore and this attacks the successful entrepreneurs. Although taxes on the wealthy are an important issue, its currently about providing jobs for the American people, especially after COVID. Before the pandemic, Trump was outpacing job creation over Reagan, Obama, Bush I, and Bush II, and his bounce back after COVID is looking to get right back on track with that trajectory. This is key for the average voter.

• Health Care: Joe Biden takes the lead here considering Trump has had some trouble repealing the ACA and not providing a clear plan for his own health care. Joe Biden is more consistent through the private-public option enhancing the ACA. The issue with Biden is this approach is more centrist/quasi-conservative and this may cause issues for progressives, however, the majority of Americans seem to be more focused on finding reasonable health care; and although Trump lowered prices on premiums fighting big pharma, Biden’s actual plan for health care is more coherent.

• Supreme Court: This is extremely divisive especially since the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett to take over the seat of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. However, after seeing the senate hearings on ACB, she is an impressive candidate, and the American people reflect this. Politico released that 51% of Americans approve of Amy Coney Barrett on the supreme court apposed to 28% who vote not to confirm. For this, Donald Trump gets a large boost going into this election.

• Coronavirus: The issue with this is that one can blame Trump for his handling of the coronavirus and his rhetoric around it which is fair, so too can you blame every leader in the world for their handling of the coronavirus. It would be unfair to compare Trump and Biden on COVID considering Biden is in no leadership position. However, Biden’s plan is still incoherent – as if he wins – how will he get the country back to a semblance of normalcy, which is a rhetorical stance the Biden camp has taken. Biden has suggested lockdowns which is becoming overwhelmingly clear that they don’t work. Trump has sped up the process of vaccines and therapeutics and his closing of borders have had an impact on mortality and his new embrace of a more rational approach – not of herd immunity – but a focussed immunity approach to protect the vulnerable and get the economy back going are good points, but for most voters his rhetoric is still an issue. Ill call this one a wash. Not to mention, Americans are sick of lockdowns according to Rasmussen, and support for Anthony Fauci amongst Republicans and Undecided’s is dwindling (see Figure 16).

• Violent Crime: This goes hand in hand with race and ethnic inequality, during the George Floyd case this at the time was a death knell to the Trump campaign, even though he denounced the police actions. However, the protests have happened, then the looting happened, then the violence happened, then the topic of Black Lives Matter turned into a smash the system in some communist revolution and this turned everyone off of the topic. Violent crime rates have spiked due to violent protests commonly from anarchist who use the BLM flag as a cover to commit their actions. People are seeing this, and more focused on Trumps law and order approach. Biden has been silent (much like his campaign strategy) and this hurts him, Trump has been proactive. Trump wins this topic.

• Foreign Policy: Donald Trump; numerous peace deals with the Middle-East, standing up to China through tariffs, slowed the North Korean nuclear fetish with the US, removing troops from countries where pointless regime wars have happened, also, vehemently against regime change wars. Joe Biden; generals approve of Biden’s hawkish tendencies of intervention, Hunter Biden’s emails reflect a massive issue with Joe Biden’s role in foreign policy especially with China and potentially illegally appropriated funds for holding public office are all key issues heading into voting day. This will be on the minds of voters regardless of the lack of coverage by some media sources. Not to mention this Hunter Biden story fell victim of the Streisand Effect, and it has become a hot button topic. Trump wins handily on foreign policy.

Electoral Prediction

Key Swing States

Pennsylvania

There was early talk about Biden making a play for Texas, but that went out the window based on his flip-flopping and ultimately going against fracking in the final debate. This statement in the final debate also lost him Pennsylvania last night. Fracking is important to the blue collar members of the state, and it shows from the Boilermakers Union actually supporting Trump (not Biden), and Biden’s ‘return to Obama-era’ policies that destroyed small-town Pennsylvania is not sitting well with voters. This is reflected in a high influx of registered Republican voters eating away the Democratic lead in early voting in the state. For this I feel Trump after the final debate will have the advantage and win the state of Pennsylvania.

Michigan

Auto workers are no fan of Joe Biden in Michigan and Trump’s immediate response bringing Ford back will not be forgotten by Michigan voters. Not to mention Gretchen Whitmer’s shaky favourability rating on the COVID pandemic with nursing homes and restrictions may have an impact. Regardless economical implications seems to be the most important factor, and Biden’s avoidance of the state seems to give the edge to Trump.

Wisconsin

Law and order is a key issue in this state, also the farm economy; Trump wins on both of these areas. The recent riots in Kenosha put a lot of voters off and the tax heights from the Biden campaign for farmers are causing anxiety. This can be very close, the same as it was in 2016, and put Trump over in this win-it-all state.

Florida

Florida is always a key state in every election and this one is no different. The key in this race is the massive support from black and latino voters for Trump, going along with his lead in areas including Orlando, and North Florida (Gainesville, Jacksonville, and Tallahassee). Florida could go either way given some Miami districts are still 20 point advantages for Democrats, but the recent insurgence of Trump minority voters gives him this states victory, and the big electoral prize that comes with it.

Arizona

Arizona would be red again this year, if the issue was the second amendment, but its not possibly due to the current situation in the Supreme Court and other key issues that are happening. For this, Arizona Republican voters may be complacent, and Democratic voters will be mobilized to vote and give the victory to Biden. The tell in this race is to look at the election for Arizona Senate with Mark Kelly’s growing lead in the polls against Republican incumbent Martha McSally.

X-Factor State

Minnesota

Minnesota went blue last election, but not by much. Looking at the electoral makeup of Minnesota you see two key blue areas in 2016: Minneapolis and Northern Minnesota (Duluth, Bemidji, Hibbing etc.). What has changed for 2020? Minneapolis will likely stay the same although some voters may be upset with unrest, but the key comes in Northern Minnesota with the support from the ‘iron range’ going towards Donald Trump, and is the x-factor in him winning the election. Trade and economics again win out in this key area that went blue in 2016, and in all likelihood is going red and giving him the state of Minnesota.

Reason for Trump Victory

Economy, law and order, supreme court. These are the key reasons for a Trump victory in 2020. This is surprising considering all of the turmoil this election season has offered. Assuring, if we were still in the same place as we were in March with COVID-19, Joe Biden would be far ahead and our next president of the United States, but regardless of the fear mongering, we are in a good spot currently with coronavirus and the polling data from Pew reflects through its ranking on the issues. Ultimately, Trumps ‘America First’ plan resonates with people as it did in 2016, and he has the economic track record to prove it.

Reason for Biden Loss

Was it the Hunter Biden scandal? Was it the constant gaffs on fracking or minorities? Was it the lack of disavowing for left-wing violence? It could be, however I think the Democrats were destined to lose back in January when Jim Clyburn supported Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren did not drop out of the race, which caused Bernie Sanders to lose momentum and delegates on Super Tuesday. If Bernie Sanders was your candidate with someone like a Yang or Gabbard as a running-mate, Trump would already have to start packing his bags in preparation for his January departure from the White House. Regardless of his other left-wing policies, Bernie Sanders tax on Wall Street speculation was the best policy of any candidate, Republican or Democrat. Not only would that be a check on the big corporations and the banks, this would fuel trust and economic influx for the middle class. The biggest failure of the Biden campaign was the continued acceptance of crony politics from the Democratic party, something the Republicans have addressed with populism of Trump.

Final Analysis

Former Clinton strategist – The Ragin’ Cajun – James Carville once said “it’s the economy stupid” as the continual key factor for American voters in every election and this one is no different. As voters move closer towards election day and they step in that ballot box, collective stories goes out the window and individuality kicks in. From stories such as the laptop, to COVID, to Trump’s rhetoric, the key question is can I put food on the table, and can I keep a roof over my head? This comes from jobs, fulfilment in the American act of working hard, and accepting American values of that hard work in paying off.

Pundits in New York City and Washington D.C. love to talk about polls. However much like their lives in these affluent cities, they have no clue about how the rest of American works reflects in their analysis of the polls. It was Reagan who proposed the question “Are you better off now, than you were four years ago” has always been a key question in every election cycle. It worked for Reagan, it worked for Clinton, it worked for Bush, and it worked in Obama’s first term. Now, in the 2020 cycle, Gallup poll shows that almost 6 in 10 Americans are better off now than they were four years ago. For myself I was unsure of the election outcomes, until I saw this poll. Now I COULD BE VERY WRONG! But for me, using a historical precedent, this is the most telling sign towards a Trump victory and four more years in the White House.