It has been almost two months since my post on the literature review of COVID-19 or SARS CoV-2. I wanted to wait a while to reflect and gain some clarity on my previous work, to either solidify or challenge my previous notions. After all it is Dewey (1916) who grounds reflection in the consideration of previous knowledge, towards additional or changed knowledge leading to conclusions. Therefore, I look back and reflect on my previous post and try to offer some clarity, if at all, for my own piece of mind.
The Chain to Access is Still a Challenge
The access to information is hard, especially when what dominates the televisions are the sensationalist drivel that is CNN and MSNBC. Not to let Fox News off the hook with its clear bias and its constant re-hashing of past-presidential-new-candidate smear during an election. Fox is noted, but the fact CNN and MSNBC markets themselves as the beacon of hope and comfort in a time of crisis, is appalling considering they can be regarded just as culpable of stoking the panic and fear that led to the shutdown just as much as the virus. Not to mention their clear political motive to drum up support for the Democratic Party, turning a virus into a political ploy. Like I said, Fox News is in the same boat, but at least they don’t hide it.
I will return to the failure of mainstream media in the end, but to finalize this section it is tough for people to get good research and access to peer-reviewed journals and academic literature considering there is a massive gate (a tuition fee) that blocks people from getting to the access of learning. You can see how I am passionate with this, pretty much the same reason a great deal of my research is about Open Education Resources (OER) and how they can impact society.
Reflecting on the Data
Although my original data is now considered old, it seems like a host of original ideas remain given what the literature said back in March. First, it is still unclear on how many are considered asymptomatic or mild symptoms. What we do know is that asymptomatic, mild, and even medium symptoms could be reflected in the underwhelming numbers of hospitalizations and deaths per 100,000 population. From stories out of New York, Illinois, Alberta, and Ontario, I cant find one story that suggests this surge or overwhelming of health care capacity.
This of course leads to the research that suggested people with comorbidities and an elder population is extremely susceptible to this disease, and unfortunately this was correct. To this date, out of the 1900+ deaths of COVID-19 in Ontario, 1400 of them are from long term care homes. Not to mention data out of New York where 5700 hospitalized patients were studied, where the data saw hospitalizations significantly relating to comorbidities (Richardson et al., 2020, April). I also reflect on the R0 number which a recent study from the CDC with an R0 of 5.7 (Sanche et al.), which is quite high and perhaps the reason for the massive spread in long term care homes, not to mention R0 can change given the characteristics of the host (i.e. Humans). As for weather, previous notions and research that I saw suggested anything over 2-3 weather will not have an impact. However, the Harvard school of Public Health concluded that coronaviruses would be greatly affected with more water vapor in the air (humidity) lowering the transmission rate (Lipsitch, 2020). It would not eradicate the disease, but the less time indoors, and more air circulation will have a great impact on the transmissibility of the virus.
Shutdowns
It is plain and simple, lockdown measures continued, and the economy is the worst since the great depression. My conclusion back in March was that “Economic issues will continue with drastic quarantine measures” (Babich, 2020, March 24, para. 13), and this has been the case considering the United States Department of Labor suggested that the week ending May 2, there were close to 23 Million unemployment claims, and with a rate of almost 16% (US Department of Labor, 2020, May 14). In Canada, the unemployment rate jumped to 13% in April from almost 8% in March (Statistics Canada, 2020).
This is also very troubling, but the media (back to them) will paint a picture of this is a battle between people vs. the economy, lives vs. money. Well, Reger, Stanley, and Joiner (2020) cite that economic hardships, paired with social isolation, and decreased access will inflate the suicide rate higher than before. This is reflected in a study that was done in 2003 that being unemployed correlated to a twofold increase in suicide (Blakely, Collings, & Atkinson, 2003), they did not take into factors such as family life, or mental illness as factors, but the consensus is adding unemployment on to underlying issues is a cause for concern.
New Conclusions
I previously made four conclusions, along with leaders to take a pragmatic approach to dealing with COVID-19, my four concluding points were:
- Social distancing and quarantine is a highly-beneficial measure for members who are at risk (elderly, immunocompromised, congenial heart issues, chronic co-morbility, etc.) through case by case isolation.
- The closing of schools does not mitigate the threat of COVID-19.
- Like Singapore, we must practice social responsibility at schools, in the workplace and out in public. Much like the WHO and CDC guidelines of wash hands frequently, stay home if you feel ill, cough and sneeze into your arm or a tissue, and be cognizant of social distancing measures.
- Economic issues will continue with drastic quarantine measures.
This has led to my new conclusions:
- Social distancing and quarantine works in the short term, and our governmental leaders failed to protect the elderly and immunocomprimized. People outside of this demographic managed fine considering most recover from the disease (around 90-98% of infected individuals according to Oxford).
- In Ontario schools have closed, although new data released states that children 0-18 are only representative of 4.7% of cases in Canada, in addition, aged 0-9 have no fatalities, where 10-19 have 0.2% of the fatalities. The main argument is about the spread, where children could spread the disease, but again, trust and effective measures can be placed to safely open schools.
- Places are starting to reopen with measures which is good. IT IS TIME, this is needed, we have successfully flattened the curve, which I thought this was what it was about the whole time.
- Unfortunately, most economic pundits are suggesting that economic issues are going to be around long after the COVID scare.
I reflect on my previous notions and I found some changes, perhaps social distancing and quarantine is a beneficial measure in the short term. Also I expected better out of government leaders to manage the virus better in long term care homes, and to not move the goal posts on getting back to normal, even after we COMPLETED THE GOAL of flattening the curve, and ensuring hospitals are prepared and stocked.
This all comes back to our perceptions and ultimately choice. I refer to the John Locke and his concept of liberalism which allows individual choice and freedom in life based on a social contract that government or monarchy are not to infringe upon (Locke, 1681). Members of society should embrace this social contract and learn to be responsible in society, at the same time be free to pursue life their way. I personally do not wear a mask and gloves in public, but I am also not unnecessarily infringing on peoples social distancing and invading their space. It is about freedom of choice! If you would like to wear a mask or stay home, that is your choice, and you are free to take on that choice as a human being under natural law. This doesn’t have to be everyone’s choice though, you should also have the right to return your life back to normal, pursue your career, and engage in society with the people that share your sentiment and will let you engage.
I have and will continue to blame the media on both sides for making this such a political issue now, and I admit I too was so short sided, as I knew it was 2020 and there was an election happening in the greatest world power in the last 100 years. Not to mention the media attack on Trump and Biden/Democrats has been going on since 2015 and culminating to this point. Companies like CNN in what seems to be 98% of their coronavirus stories always follow with Trump, and they claim that it is not political, but it is, and they are the ones that made it political. His name is on screen just as many times as the CNN logo, it almost makes me think that they want him to win in November. Could be a case considering the Wall Street Journal reported CNN is achieving record ratings with the CEO Jeff Zucker wanting to push the crisis more and more, not mention higher ratings since Trump took office.
Through my social media, and blog I feel I have said my peace with this topic, and I will remain confident with these quick final points:
- You should be vigilant with this virus, not scared of it.
- It is an election year, and this virus was always about politics in the United States and its media.
- Public health needs to change, especially the forseen tragedy in long term care homes.
- Be an individual, we flattened the curve, don’t let government change the rules.
Oh, and I almost forgot…
Sweden’s model of a quasi-herd immunity is projected to be a model for the future of pandemics, by embracing trust in its people, and individuality to engage in the social contract. This could be the future of fighting pandemics, even the W.H.O. believes so.
References
Babich, C. (2020, March 24). Finding a rational middle: Objective and systematic literature review of SARS CoV-2 research articles. Carson’s Education Blog. https://carsonbabich.wordpress.com/2020/03/24/finding-a-rational-middle-objective-and-systematic-literature-review-of-sars-cov-2-research-articles/
Blakely, T. A., Collings, S. C. D., Atkinson, J. (2003). Unemployment and suicide. Evidence for a causal association? Journal of Epidemiological and Community Health, 57, 594-600. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1732539/pdf/v057p00594.pdf
Dewey, J. (1916). Democracy and education: An introduction to the philosophy of education. Free Press
Lipsitch, M. (2020). Seasonality of SARS-CoV-2: Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather? T.H. Chan, Harvard School of Public Health: Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/
Locke, J. (1681). Two treatises of government.
Reger, M. A., Stanley, I. H., Joiner, T. E. (2020). Suicide mortality and coronavirus disease 2019-A perfect storm? Journal of the American Medical Association. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/2764584
Richardson et al. (2020). Presenting characteristics, comorbidities, and outcomes among 5700 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the New York City area. Journal of the American Medical Association, (Original Investigation, April), E1-E8. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/10.1001/jama.2020.6775?utm_campaign=articlePDF%26utm_medium=articlePDFlink%26utm_source=articlePDF%26utm_content=jama.2020.6775
Sanche et al. (2020). High contagiousness and rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Emerging Infectious Diseases: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 26. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200282
Statistics Canada. (2020). Labour force characteristics, monthly, seasonally adjusted and trend-cycle, last 5 months. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410028701
United States Department of Labor. (2020, May 14). Unemployment insurance weekly claims. https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
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